A "Spook-tacular" Week Some mega-cap technology companies were under pressure last week on weak earnings and tepid fourth-quarter guidance. They reported multiple headwinds, including declining advertising revenues, loose expense control, and a slowdown in cloud growth. Meanwhile, positive earnings surprises from “old economy” companies powered markets higher. This market bifurcation was evident in the divergence in the performance of the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted a substantial gain despite its disproportionate weighting of mega-cap stocks, which helped illustrate the power of the rally. Momentum accelerated into Friday, aided by an easing in inflation and a solid third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. |
Market Update1 |
ObservationsU.S. equities had a strong week, returning +3.97%. Among style boxes domestically, each turned in positive numbers on the week, with small-cap dominating its larger-cap brethren. Developed international markets were up on week, returning +4.13%, while Emerging Market stocks were down, returning -2.24%. U.S. bonds were up on the week, with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index up +1.65. |
Freight Volumes Slow Heading into Holiday Season: Container imports, measured in 20-foot-equivalent units, were down 11% year-over-year and were off 12.4% in August, an unusually sharp falloff in the months considered the peak of shipping season. Container imports from China, where manufacturers of goods including furniture, toys and electronics stuff boxes bound for U.S. retailers, tumbled 18.3% from August to September.2 Inflation around the Globe: The European Union’s statistics agency Monday said consumer prices were 10.7% higher in October than a year earlier, the fastest rate of increase since records began in 1997, two years before the euro was launched. As measured by the Eurostat method, Italy’s annual rate of inflation jumped to 12.8% in October from 9.4% in September, while Germany’s inflation rate rose to 11.6% from 10.9%. By contrast, Spain’s inflation rate fell to 7.3% from 9%.3 Facebook’s Free Fall: Last fall, Facebook had a market cap just shy of $1.1 trillion. It’s now $266 billion, meaning the company has lost more than $800 billion dollars in a little over a year. To put this loss into perspective, $800 billion is a bigger dollar amount than the market cap of every single company in the S&P 500 right now save for Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon. The stock price of Facebook is now back to levels last seen in 2015, when sales at the company were one-sixth the size they are today.4 Reprinted with permission from BTN. Copyright © 2022 Michael A. Higley. 1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 10/28/2022 2 https://www.wsj.com/articles/freight-operators-peak-shipping-season-is-crumbling-11666118281?mod=article_inline 3 https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-inflation-rate-rises-to-10-7-as-recession-looms-11667210401 4 https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/the-agony-ecstasy-of-stock-picking |
Economic Definitions GDP: Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the final market value of all goods and services produced within a country. It is the most frequently used indicator of economic activity. The GDP by expenditure approach measures total final expenditures (at purchasers' prices ), including exports less imports. This concept is adjusted for inflation. ISM Services Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc. Target Audience: supply management professionals Sample Size: 300 individuals Date of Survey: through the month The Services Index is a compos ite index of four indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. An index reading above 50% indicates an expansion and below 50% indicates a decline in the non-manufacturing economy. Where as per Supplier Deliveries Index, above 50% indicates slower deliveries and below 50% indicates faster deliveries. Job Openings – JOLTS: This concept tracks the number of specific job openings in an economy. Job vacancies generally include either newly created or unoccupied positions (or those that are about to become vacant) where an employer is taking specific actions to fill these positions. ISM Manufacturing Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Consumer confidence tracks sentiment among households or consumers. The results are based on surveys conducted among a random sample of households. Target Audience: representative sample of US households (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). Surveys of Consumers collects data on consumer attitudes and expectations summarized in the Consumer Sentiment, in order to determine the changes in consumers' willingness to buy and to predict their subsequent discretionary expenditures. This Index is comprised of measures of attitudes toward personal finances, general business conditions, and market conditions or prices. Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment are included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index. Unit: Index (Q1 1966=100) Index Definitions S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971. Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928. Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978. MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East. MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded. Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.
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